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Thursday March 7, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Childress, TX (KCDS)

People in Childress, Texas ("Gateway to the Panhandle") will experience a a fairly wild temperature ride. Wednesday morning's low is in the low 20's and then Thursday's high could be in the mid 80's. But the National Weather Service is predicting Thursday to be only in the 70's. So let's predict Tmax for Childress and see how high it goes.

Question: What is the reason for the rapid warming there?

Forecasts for Childress, TX (KCDS)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 77 Tmax FINAL.
Reference
PERSISTENCE 60 (-17) 0
CLIMATE 64.2 (-12.8) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 1.0
MOS
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 89 (12) 1.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 88 (11) 1.5
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 87 (10) 1.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 87 (10) 1.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 86 (9) 2.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 86 (9) 2.1
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 86 (9) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 85 (8) 2.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 85 (8) 2.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 81 (4) 3.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 80 (3) 3.9