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Wednesday March 6, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr precipitation amount (inches) for Bishop, CA (KBIH)

Bishop, California ("The Mule Capital of the World") is a town in a a 4000 ft valley just to the east of 14,000 ft peaks of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Although the Sierras receive a tremendous amount of snow, Bishop only averages 5 inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) per year. But they received 2 inches in February and now Wednesday could bring a month's worth of rainfall in one day. Let's predict the 24 hr precipitation amount for Bishop and see what happens.

Question: Why does Bishop usually get only a fraction of the precipitation received in the nearby Sierra Nevadas?

Forecasts for Bishop, CA (KBIH)
Forecaster Precip24, inches (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 1.05 Precip24 FINAL.
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 1.08 (0.03) 2.9
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 1.02 (-0.03) 2.9
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 1.14 (0.09) 2.8
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 1.14 (0.09) 2.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 1.14 (0.09) 2.8
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 1.2 (0.15) 2.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 1.2 (0.15) 2.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 0.72 (-0.33) 2.1
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 1.5 (0.45) 1.8
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 0.54 (-0.51) 1.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 0.12 (-0.93) 0.5
CLIMATE 0.09 (-0.96) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.4
PERSISTENCE 0.01 (-1.04) 0.2