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Thursday February 28, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Huntsville, TX (KUTS)

Continuing with the theme of forecast difficulties at the edges of a cold air mass, let's look at Thursday's minimum temperature forecast for Huntsville, Texas ("Home of Sam Houston"). The cold air mass that has spilled down the Great Plains is stalled in central Texas, and Huntsville is near the edge (described as a "weak cold front" in the NWS forecast discussion), and one model keeps it in the cooler air on Thursday and one keeps the cooler air to the north of Huntsville. Let's forecast Tmin for Huntsville and see what happens.

Question: How could the dew point temperature help you determine whether or not Huntsville is in the cooler or warmer air mass?

Forecasts for Huntsville, TX (KUTS)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 40 (0) 3.4
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 39 (-1) 3.2
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 38 (-2) 3.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 43 (3) 2.9
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 44 (4) 2.8
CLIMATE 46.6 (6.6) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 48 (8) 2.2
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 51 (11) 1.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 53 (13) 1.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 55 (15) 1.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 58 (18) 0.7
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 58 (18) 0.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 60 (20) 0.4