Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest
Friday February 15, 2019
Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Fort Worth-Meacham, TX (KFTW)
Friday's high temperature forecast for Fort Worth, Texas is tricky. The model forecasts range from the mid 50's to the low 80's! So let's forecast Tmax and see what happens.
Question: What is the reason for the uncertain forecast?
| Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBSERVED | 74 | Tmax FINAL (minor problem). | |
| Reference | |||
| CLIMATE | 60 (-14) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0.6 |
| PERSISTENCE | 79 (5) | 2.4 | |
| MOS | |||
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 56 (-18) | 0 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 64 (-10) | 1.4 | |
| NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 65 (-9) | 1.6 | |
| NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 65 (-9) | 1.6 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 82 (8) | 1.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 81 (7) | 2.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 80 (6) | 2.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 77 (3) | 2.8 | |
| GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 76 (2) | 3.0 | |
| GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 75 (1) | 3.2 | |
| GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 74 (0) | 3.4 | |