Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Show All Forecasters Together OR Show Divisions Separately

Friday February 15, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Fort Worth-Meacham, TX (KFTW)

Friday's high temperature forecast for Fort Worth, Texas is tricky. The model forecasts range from the mid 50's to the low 80's! So let's forecast Tmax and see what happens.

Question: What is the reason for the uncertain forecast?

Forecasts for Fort Worth-Meacham, TX (KFTW)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 74 Tmax FINAL (minor problem).
Reference
CLIMATE 60 (-14) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0.6
PERSISTENCE 79 (5) 2.4
MOS
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 56 (-18) 0
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 64 (-10) 1.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 65 (-9) 1.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 65 (-9) 1.6
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 82 (8) 1.8
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 81 (7) 2.0
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 80 (6) 2.2
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 77 (3) 2.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 76 (2) 3.0
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 75 (1) 3.2
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 74 (0) 3.4