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Wednesday February 13, 2019

Assignment: Predict the snow depth at the end of the day (inches) for Burlington, VT (KBTV)

Wednesday's big weather story will be the intense but fast-moving winter storm that will pass through New England. For many places like New York City and Boston, a significant part of the precipitation may be sleet and freezing rain, but further to the north in Burlington, Vermont, it should be mostly or completely snow, starting on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. Let's predict the snow on the ground in Burlington at the end of the day Wednesday, taking into account that there is already 3 inches there and that the snowfall on both Tuesday and Wednesday will contribute to the total at the end of the day Wednesday. Check out this nice graphical forecast from the NWS.

Question: Including Tuesday and Wednesday, over one inch of liquid precipitation (rain + melted snow) is expected. About what depth of snow would you expect if 1 inch of precipitation falls entirely as snow?

Forecasts for Burlington, VT (KBTV)
Forecaster Snow depth, inches (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 11 Data through 0600 UTC
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 6 (-5) 2.7
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 6 (-5) 2.7
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 6 (-5) 2.7
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 6 (-5) 2.7
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 6 (-5) 2.7
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 6 (-5) 2.7
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 5.7 (-5.3) 2.3
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 5.7 (-5.3) 2.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 4.8 (-6.2) 1.0
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 4.8 (-6.2) 1.0
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 3.7 (-7.3) 0