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Friday February 8, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Pittsburgh-Allegheny, PA (KAGC)

The cold air that has been spilling into the Midwest this week will push through the Northeast and Southeast by Friday. For sites like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the high temperature for the day will come before sunrise, at about the time the cold front arrives, since our contest day is defined as beginning at 0600 UTC (1 am EST). Then temperatures should fall steadily all day, leading to a minimum temperature a 1 am EST the next night. Let's forecast Friday's Tmax for Pittsburgh and see what happens.

Question: The MOS temperatures shown below are about 50-60 F, but on the National Weather Service page, they show Friday's high as 36 F! Did the NWS make a mistake?

Forecasts for Pittsburgh-Allegheny, PA (KAGC)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 54 Tmax FINAL.
Reference
CLIMATE 37.6 (-16.4) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0
MOS
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 60 (6) 1.6
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 60 (6) 1.6
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 59 (5) 1.9
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 59 (5) 1.9
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 58 (4) 2.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 50 (-4) 2.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 51 (-3) 2.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 51 (-3) 2.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 51 (-3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 51 (-3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 55 (1) 2.9
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 54 (0) 3.2