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Thursday February 7, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for St Louis, MO (KSTL)

Some locations in the Midwest will experience the passage of a dramatic cold front during the day on Thursday. St. Louis, Missouri will begin the day in the warm sector, with temperatures far above average and rain, but then the temperature will plunge with gusty winds after the cold front passes. It may not be easy to forecast the maximum temperature, as the models don't seem to agree how warm it will get before the front arrives. So let's forecast Tmax for St. Louis and see how warm it gets before the big fall.

Question: In a midlatitude cyclone, what is the "warm sector"?

Forecasts for St Louis, MO (KSTL)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 40 (1) 3.6
CLIMATE 42.7 (3.7) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 3.2
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 43 (4) 3.2
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 44 (5) 3.1
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 49 (10) 2.4
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 53 (14) 1.8
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 56 (17) 1.4
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 57 (18) 1.3
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 58 (19) 1.1
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 58 (19) 1.1
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 59 (20) 1.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 61 (22) 0.7