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Friday February 1, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Fargo, ND (KFAR)

After being in a historic deep freeze for the past few days, the Northern Plains will see rapid warming on Friday. But Friday's maximum temperature forecasts for Fargo, North Dakota have a range of more than 10 deg F, probably because there is a strong temperature gradient at the western edge of the retreating cold air mass, and relatively small differences in timing and position between different models can lead to large differences in temperature. So let's forecast Friday's Tmax for Fargo and see if it gets close to 32 F.

Question: What is a temperature gradient?

Forecasts for Fargo, ND (KFAR)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 17 Tmax FINAL.
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 17 (0) 3.0
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 18 (1) 2.8
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 18 (1) 2.8
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 18 (1) 2.8
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 20 (3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 20 (3) 2.4
CLIMATE 20 (3) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 2.4
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 20 (3) 2.4
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 20 (3) 2.4
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 24 (7) 1.5
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 28 (11) 0.6
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 28 (11) 0.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 32 (15) 0