The big story this week is the brutal cold air mass that has settled in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes states. Among our 800+ contest sites, the coldest MOS predictions are for Park Rapids, in north central Minnesota. Most of the MOS predictions are about -44 F -- how many people have ever experienced temperatures that cold? There is some uncertainty caused by the fact that modest wind speeds could prevent the temperature from getting quite that low -- here's the NWS discussion: "Tonight, the surface high will move into the eastern Dakotas and winds will decrease to the 5 to 10 kt range. Still looking on track for the coldest air in years with actual temps in the -30s and even -40s and even colder wind chills as there will continue to be some wind. Continuing the wind chill warning is a no-brainer." So let's forecast Wednesday's Tmin for Park Rapids and see how low it goes.
Question: Question: If the temperature falls to -40 F, what would the temperature be in Celsius?
Forecaster | Tmin, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
---|---|---|---|
OBSERVED | -42 | Tmin FINAL. | |
Reference | |||
PERSISTENCE | -33 ( ) | ||
CLIMATE | -4 (38) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0 |
MOS | |||
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | -36 (6) | 1.9 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | -46 (-4) | 2.1 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | -38 (4) | 2.1 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | -45 (-3) | 2.2 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | -45 (-3) | 2.2 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | -44 (-2) | 2.3 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | -44 (-2) | 2.3 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | -44 (-2) | 2.3 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | -44 (-2) | 2.3 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | -44 (-2) | 2.3 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | -41 (1) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | -42 (0) | 2.6 |