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Wednesday January 30, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Park Rapids, MN (KPKD)

The big story this week is the brutal cold air mass that has settled in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes states. Among our 800+ contest sites, the coldest MOS predictions are for Park Rapids, in north central Minnesota. Most of the MOS predictions are about -44 F -- how many people have ever experienced temperatures that cold? There is some uncertainty caused by the fact that modest wind speeds could prevent the temperature from getting quite that low -- here's the NWS discussion: "Tonight, the surface high will move into the eastern Dakotas and winds will decrease to the 5 to 10 kt range. Still looking on track for the coldest air in years with actual temps in the -30s and even -40s and even colder wind chills as there will continue to be some wind. Continuing the wind chill warning is a no-brainer." So let's forecast Wednesday's Tmin for Park Rapids and see how low it goes.

Question: Question: If the temperature falls to -40 F, what would the temperature be in Celsius?

Forecasts for Park Rapids, MN (KPKD)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 -42 (0) 2.6
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 -41 (1) 2.5
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 -44 (-2) 2.3
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 -44 (-2) 2.3
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 -44 (-2) 2.3
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 -44 (-2) 2.3
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 -44 (-2) 2.3
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 -45 (-3) 2.2
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 -45 (-3) 2.2
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 -38 (4) 2.1
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 -46 (-4) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 -36 (6) 1.9
CLIMATE -4 (38) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0