Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Show All Forecasters Together OR Show Divisions Separately

Wednesday January 23, 2019

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Syracuse, NY (KSYR)

For most places in the East, forecasters and models predict that there will be dramatic warming between Tuesday and Wednesday. In Syracuse, New York, the high temperature on Tuesday is expected to be only in the 20's, but about 40 F on Wednesday, despite an impressive 18 inches of snow on the ground after the big weekend storm. Let's forecast Wednesday's high temperature in Syracuse, and see if it really reaches all the way to 40 F.

Question: In addition to the very deep snow cover, Wednesday's forecast in Syracuse includes overcast skies and a wintry mix of precipitation. With all of those factors that usually lead to cooler daytime temperatures, how will it be possible to get such rapid warming?

Forecasts for Syracuse, NY (KSYR)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score
OBSERVED 46 Data FINAL.
Reference
PERSISTENCE 26 ( )
CLIMATE 31.3 (-14.7) NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 0
MOS
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 40 (-6) 1.8
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 40 (-6) 1.8
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 40 (-6) 1.8
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 41 (-5) 2.1
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 41 (-5) 2.1
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 41 (-5) 2.1
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 41 (-5) 2.1
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 42 (-4) 2.5
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 42 (-4) 2.5
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 42 (-4) 2.5
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 43 (-3) 2.8
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 44 (-2) 3.1