For most places in the East, forecasters and models predict that there will be dramatic warming between Tuesday and Wednesday. In Syracuse, New York, the high temperature on Tuesday is expected to be only in the 20's, but about 40 F on Wednesday, despite an impressive 18 inches of snow on the ground after the big weekend storm. Let's forecast Wednesday's high temperature in Syracuse, and see if it really reaches all the way to 40 F.
Question: In addition to the very deep snow cover, Wednesday's forecast in Syracuse includes overcast skies and a wintry mix of precipitation. With all of those factors that usually lead to cooler daytime temperatures, how will it be possible to get such rapid warming?
Forecaster | Tmax, deg F (error) | Comment | Day Score |
---|---|---|---|
OBSERVED | 46 | Data FINAL. | |
Reference | |||
PERSISTENCE | 26 ( ) | ||
CLIMATE | 31.3 (-14.7) | NCDC Climate Normals, 1981-2010 | 0 |
MOS | |||
GFS-MOS-06-DAY02 | 40 (-6) | 1.8 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY02 | 40 (-6) | 1.8 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY02 | 40 (-6) | 1.8 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY02 | 41 (-5) | 2.1 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY01 | 41 (-5) | 2.1 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY01 | 41 (-5) | 2.1 | |
GFS-MOS-12-DAY01 | 41 (-5) | 2.1 | |
GFS-MOS-06-DAY01 | 42 (-4) | 2.5 | |
NAM-MOS-12-DAY01 | 42 (-4) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-00-DAY00 | 42 (-4) | 2.5 | |
GFS-MOS-18-DAY01 | 43 (-3) | 2.8 | |
NAM-MOS-00-DAY00 | 44 (-2) | 3.1 |