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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Thursday November 15, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Pittsburgh-International, PA (KPIT)

The precipitation forecast for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Thursday is complicated because of likely changes in precipitation type (sleet, freezing rain, rain, snow) through the day. The NWS forecast discussion says "The biggest uncertainty is the temperature profile both at the sfc and aloft, which will greatly dictate precip type." Let's forecast the maximum temperature and see how far above freezing it gets, and what the effect is on the precipitation type.

Question of the Day: The NWS discussion also says: "Though looking much less likely...there remains a very small risk for a prolonged freezing rain and/or sleet event if sfc temps are slow to warm above freezing due to reinforcing cold air from the east." What is the (vertical) temperature profile needed for freezing rain?

Forecasts for Pittsburgh-International, PA (KPIT)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score