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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Friday November 2, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Glens Falls, NY (KGFL)

With a surface low and associated fronts moving through the Northeast on Friday, there are some interesting forecasting challenges. For example, an earlier GFS MOS forecast was 20 F warmer than the NAM MOS forecast of Friday's high temperature forecast for Glens Falls, New York (the name refers to a nearby waterfall on the Hudson River). The current difference is down to about 9 F. Let's forecast Tmax and see what happens.

Question of the Day: The earlier GFS MOS forecast had mostly southerly winds during the day, but the NAM MOS had mostly northerly winds. How could this explain the difference in the two Tmax forecasts?

Forecasts for Glens Falls, NY (KGFL)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score