Forecast Central

Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

Show All Forecasters Together OR Show Divisions Separately

Thursday October 18, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Douglas, AZ (KDUG)

Sometimes when the two different MOS forecasts disagree, it's easy to see that there is a difference in position or timing of some feature that causes the forecast difference. But for Thursday in Douglas, Arizona (extreme southeast corner of the state), the GFS MOS Tmin forecast of 49 F seems reasonable, but I don't see why the NAM MOS is predicting a low of 35. Both MOS reports predict steady winds overnight, and the NAM MOS has more cloud cover. Let's forecast Tmin for Douglas and see what happens.

Forecasts for Douglas, AZ (KDUG)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score