It's officially fall now, and snow is already falling in parts of northern Montana. But Wednesday's temperature forecasts are interesting for Bozeman, in southwestern Montana. The GFS MOS predicts a high of 71 F, but the NAM MOS predicts only 55 F, and the National Weather Service is agreeing with the NAM. So the NWS forecasters usually look at multiple model forecasts to understand what's going on, and sometimes they split the difference, while other times they believe that one model is correct and other isn't. Let's forecast Wednesday's Tmax for Bozeman and see what happens.
Question: Why is there such a big difference between the two models? Here's a hint, look at the noon forecasts for temperature anomaly (difference from average) for the GFS and NAM.
|Tmax, deg F (error)