When trying to predict the probability of thunderstorms, forecasters sometimes point to a couple of key ingredients: (1) an ample supply of low-level moisture (fuel for the storms); and (2) something that will cause rising motion to initiate thunderstorms, such as a frontal passage. Thunderstorms (probably not severe) are predicted for St. Louis, Missouri on Wednesday, and both ingredients are present. Low level flow is bringing moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, with dew points in the 70's up into the Midwest. Forecasting precipitation amount is difficult, but let's forecast Wednesday's total rainfall amount for St. Louis.
Question: So what will likely provide lifting to initiate thunderstorms? You can find the answer in the National Weather Service national forecast discussion.
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