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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Wednesday April 11, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Phoenix-Sky Harbor, AZ (KPHX)

When almost all of the MOS forecasts are exactly the same, I wonder if the models are good enough to be so certain of a max or min temperature, down to a single degree. That's the situation for Wednesday's high temperature forecast for Phoenix, Arizona, where almost all of the MOS forecasts call for 97 F, although the forecast is 98 on the NWS page. So let's forecast Tmax and see whether the forecast is as easy as it looks.

Question: The NWS discussion for Phoenix starts with: "Strong high pressure through Wednesday will bring well above normal temperatures to the region." Why is high pressure often correlated with warm temperatures?

What Happened?

Well it did turn out to be an easy forecast! The high was 96, only one deg F away from all of the forecasts of 97. Sometimes, forecasting is easy.

Forecasts for Phoenix-Sky Harbor, AZ (KPHX)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score