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Thursday April 5, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Quillayute, WA (KUIL)

In the Pacific Northwest, Thursday will bring heavy cloud cover, steady rain and snow in the mountains, with more expected in the coming week. Often the heaviest rainfall is on the Pacific side of the Olympic Peninsula, at NWS stations like Quillayute, Washington, only a few miles from the ocean. Quillayute is really an airport, not a town, close to the town of Forks, Washington ("Logging Capital of the World").

Some of the MOS forecasts predict only a 3 degree difference between the low and high temperature on Thursday, but others show a difference as much as 8 degrees. Let's forecast Tmax for Quillayute and see what happens.

Question: With thick clouds and rain, why does the temperature increase at all during the day?

What Happened?

The temperature increased to 51 F on Thursday in Quillayute, 6 degrees above the low temperature, despite complete overcast, light rain, fog and mist. The temperature still increased a few degrees, because some solar radiation still reaches the ground (obviously, or it would be completely dark!), enough to provide some warming, especially as the sun continues to get higher in the sky and the number of hours of daylight increase during the spring.

Forecasts for Quillayute, WA (KUIL)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score