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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Thursday March 15, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr maximum temperature (deg F) for Garden City, KS (KGCK)

On Thursday, model forecasts show the formation of a surface low pressure center in the lee of the Rockies, but the two main U.S. models differ in the initial location. The GFS shows it forming in northeastern Colorado, but the NAM has it in southwestern Kansas.The GFS predicts near-record maximum temperatures for southwestern Kansas, with 20 mph winds from the southwest, but the NAM has wind speeds of only about 10 mph at the same time. Let's predict the Tmax for Garden City, Kansas and see if they break their record of 84 F, as the GFS predicts.

Question: Why might stronger southwest winds in this situation lead to warmer temperatures?

Forecasts for Garden City, KS (KGCK)
Forecaster Tmax, deg F (error) Comment Day Score