Wolf Point (along the Missouri River in northeast Montana) should be warming over the next couple of days, but the two types of MOS disagree about how much it will warm on Thursday. The GFS MOS predicts a high of 28 F, while the NAM MOS says 38. The NWS forecast discussion mentions the uncertainty: "There exists some uncertainty in high temperatures for especially the river valleys. Existing snow cover could help maintain the inversion there, and so it is difficult to have higher confidence in getting much above freezing here. Nevertheless, some factors are favorable for the warm up even in the river valleys. For one, as March unfolds, the sun angle is getting higher, and the days are getting longer. This allows more time for boundary layer mixing to take place." Let's predict Tmax and see what happens.
|Tmax, deg F (error)