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Forecast of the Day • A National Weather Forecasting Contest

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Saturday February 10, 2018

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for College Station, TX (KCLL)

Sometimes the timing of a strong frontal passage can be a difficult forecast problem. That's the case with Saturday's minimum temperature forecast for many sites in central Texas. Both the GFS and NAM agree that there will be southerly flow and temperatures in the 60's for the first part of Saturday, and then that a strong cold front will push through later, dropping temperatures into the 40's or even 30's. But the models disagree on the timing of the change. The GFS keeps temperatures in the 60's all the way past midnight Saturday night, while the NAM brings it much earlier, with the temperature dropping to almost 40 F by midnight. Let's forecast Tmin for College Station, Texas and see what happens.

Forecasts for College Station, TX (KCLL)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score