The dangerous forest fires driven by the Santa Ana winds in southern California have been leading the national news this week. Let's forecast for Oxnard, California, which is close to the huge Ventura fire. Why are the minimum temperature forecasts as high as 50 F, even though there are no clouds, and the dew points are at 32 F and below? Let's predict Saturday's Tmin and see what happens.
The Tmin in Oxnard was able to stay as high as 50 F, far above the dew point, primarily because of the high wind speeds. Looking at the hourly obs, the winds would decrease for a bit, allowing the temperature to drop to around 50, but then the winds would ramp up again, raising the temperature. For strong nocturnal cooling, skies should be clear and winds light.
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