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Thursday December 7, 2017

Assignment: Predict the 24 hr minimum temperature (deg F) for Honolulu, HI (PHNL)

In honor of the December 7 anniversary of the Pearl Harbor attack, let's forecast for Honolulu, HI. Let's forecast Thursday's Tmin in Honolulu, which is predicted to be about 8 F lower than average. Here's something from the NWS forecast discussion which suggests the reason: "A dry, stable post-frontal airmass lies over the island chain this morning . .". So what characteristics does a post-frontal airmass have?

What Happened?

A post-frontal airmass is the cooler airmass that you experience in the hours or days after a cold front passes. Of course the temperature are usually lower than average, but it can also be quite dry. It may or not be windy. For Honolulu on Thursday, the drier post-frontal atmosphere allowed for more radiative cooling, along with light winds and only a few clouds, allowed it to cool to 62 F, several degrees cooler than average.

Forecasts for Honolulu, HI (PHNL)
Forecaster Tmin, deg F (error) Comment Day Score